Which companies will sign a Venezuelan oil agreement?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:00 UTC, Kalshi traders price Shell (68.0%), ExxonMobil (22.0%), ConocoPhillips (13.0%). The market has $4K in volume and closes on Fri, 08 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shell | 68.0% | 68.0¢ | 32.0¢ |
| ExxonMobil | 22.0% | 22.0¢ | 78.0¢ |
| ConocoPhillips | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $4K
- Liquidity: $4K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Shell:
If Shell signs, itself or through a controlled affiliate, a binding agreement after Issuance granting it an enforceable upstream crude-oil economic participation right in Venezuela before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency. News confirmation is defined as a published article, broadcast segment, or official news report by a Source Agency, that A) explicitly states the event claim occurred, is true, or has been verified, B) is based on journalistic investigation, sources, or evidence, and C) is presented as factual reporting rather than speculation, rumor, or unverified allegation. A named company satisfies this criterion if it or a controlled affiliate signs a binding agreement that directly grants the named company or controlled affiliate an enforceable upstream ownership, working, concession, production-sharing, or comparable economic participation right to explore for, develop, or produce crude oil at a Venezuelan upstream asset. Associated obligations are permitted, but performance obligations alone do not qualify. The counterparty may be Venezuela, PDVSA, a PDVSA affiliate, or another party legally authorized to grant those rights. A company statement or announcement without a signed binding agreement, a preliminary or nonbinding memorandum, negotiations, an expression of interest, due diligence, data-room access, a technical visit, a government license or sanctions a…
Sources
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