Who will officially lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 02:00:59 UTC, Kalshi traders price Nicolás Maduro (76.0%), Delcy Rodríguez (22.0%), Edmundo González (6.0%). The market has $5.7M in volume and closes on Thu, 31 Dec 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolás Maduro | 76.0% | 76.0¢ | 24.0¢ |
| Delcy Rodríguez | 22.0% | 22.0¢ | 78.0¢ |
| Edmundo González | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| María Corina Machado | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| Juan Guaidó | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Vladimir Padrino López | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Marco Rubio | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Jorge Rodríguez | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Donald Trump | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Dinorah Figuera | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Diosdado Cabello Rondón | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Miguel Rodríguez Torres | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Pete Hegseth | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Richard Grenell | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Dan Caine | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $5.7M
- Liquidity: $5.7M
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Nicolás Maduro:
If Nicolás Maduro officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. For the purposes of this contract, "officially holds" means any of the following: Nicolás Maduro has been formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela Nicolás Maduro is listed in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources as the head of state of Venezuela Nicolás Maduro is actively serving as the head of state of Venezuela with full authority and responsibilities (not suspended, on leave, or in acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified) The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: Nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective Appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026 Previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026 Serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity Named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed Holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself Clarification (04/15/26): To help clarify this market, if the Expiration Date were today at this time, this market would resolve Yes to Nicolás…
Sources
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