US-Iran nuclear deal?

As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 06:25:46 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Jan 20, 2029 (37.0%), Before Jan 1, 2028 (34.0%), Before Mar 1, 2027 (18.0%). The market has $25.2M in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.

Updated:

Current odds

OutcomeChanceYes priceNo price
Before Jan 20, 202937.0%37.0¢63.0¢
Before Jan 1, 202834.0%34.0¢66.0¢
Before Mar 1, 202718.0%18.0¢82.0¢
Before Feb 1, 202714.0%14.0¢86.0¢
Before Jan 1, 20278.0%8.0¢92.0¢
Before Dec 1, 20267.0%7.0¢93.0¢
Before Nov 1, 20262.0%2.0¢98.0¢
Before Oct 1, 20261.0%1.0¢99.0¢

Market details

Resolution rules

Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Jan 20, 2029:

If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. An agreement also made with other countries (i.e. multilaterally) is still encompassed if the United States participates. "A new Iran-US nuclear deal" means a formal written agreement signed by authorized representatives of both the United States and Iran that (1) imposes verifiable restrictions on Iran's nuclear program, including limits on uranium enrichment, centrifuge numbers, or nuclear facility operations, AND (2) provides for the lifting, suspension, or modification of at least one US economic sanction on Iran in exchange for Iran's nuclear commitments. Clarification (04/19/26): The Agreement Long rulebook variable defines the nature of the qualifying instrument: it must be a formal written agreement signed by authorized representatives of both governments. It does not impose a precondition that the signing itself must occur before resolution. Because the Payout Criterion is satisfied if the United States has "agreed to, signed, or accepted" such an instrument, both governments publicly and officially agreeing to the terms of what will be a qualifying written agreement is sufficient to resolve the market to Yes, even if the formal signing has not yet taken place. Clarification (06/02/26): A qualifying instrument must impose "verifiable restrictions on Iran's nuclear program." A restriction is "verifiable" only where it establishes…

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