When will the U.S. and Iran hold a diplomatic meeting?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:42:02 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Apr 1, 2027 (77.0%), Before Mar 1, 2027 (65.0%), Before Feb 1, 2027 (52.0%). The market has $47K in volume and closes on Sat, 01 May 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 77.0% | 77.0¢ | 23.0¢ |
| Before Mar 1, 2027 | 65.0% | 65.0¢ | 35.0¢ |
| Before Feb 1, 2027 | 52.0% | 52.0¢ | 48.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 38.0% | 38.0¢ | 62.0¢ |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 18.0% | 18.0¢ | 82.0¢ |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $47K
- Liquidity: $47K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Apr 1, 2027:
If the United States and Iran hold a senior-level diplomatic meeting after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify, unless the new article itself explicitly reaffirms the truth of the topic as of the publication date. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity. The meeting must be deliberately convened for diplomacy or negotiation, and each country must be represented by at least one senior official who actively participates in an official capacity. It need not produce an agreement, joint statement, or commitment to further talks. Only the part of a meeting held after Issuance counts; a meeting held entirely before Issuance does not qualify, even if reported afterward. A senior official is a head of state or government, vice president, foreign minister or other cabinet-rank minister, head of a national security council, presiding officer of a national legislature, special envoy, or anyone the head of state or government designates to conduct diplomatic negotiations on their behalf. Officials whose mandate is limited to technical, implementation, monitoring, staff-level, or preparatory discussions do…
Sources
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