Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 12:28:44 UTC, Polymarket traders price US (26.0%), UK (16.5%), Australia (15.5%). The market has $51K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| US | 26.0% | 26.0¢ | 74.0¢ |
| UK | 16.5% | 16.5¢ | 83.5¢ |
| Australia | 15.5% | 15.5¢ | 84.5¢ |
| Greece | 11.1% | 11.1¢ | 88.9¢ |
| France | 10.5% | 10.5¢ | 89.5¢ |
| Germany | 8.5% | 8.5¢ | 91.5¢ |
| Netherlands | 4.5% | 4.5¢ | 95.5¢ |
| Italy | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $51K
- Liquidity: $58K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify. For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify. Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice. Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman,…
Sources
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