Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 15:34:25 UTC, Polymarket traders price Mexico (13.0%), Vietnam (13.0%), Russia (11.0%). The market has $368K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
| Vietnam | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.1¢ |
| Russia | 11.0% | 11.0¢ | 89.0¢ |
| United Kingdom | 10.5% | 10.5¢ | 89.5¢ |
| Japan | 10.3% | 10.3¢ | 89.6¢ |
| Canada | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
| Taiwan | 9.6% | 9.6¢ | 90.5¢ |
| Australia | 9.5% | 9.5¢ | 90.5¢ |
| Israel | 9.5% | 9.5¢ | 90.5¢ |
| Pakistan | 9.5% | 9.5¢ | 90.5¢ |
| Argentina | 8.5% | 8.5¢ | 91.5¢ |
| India | 8.5% | 8.5¢ | 91.5¢ |
| Indonesia | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| South Africa | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Brazil | 6.6% | 6.6¢ | 93.5¢ |
Prices on other venues
| Outcome | Venue | Chance | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | Kalshi | 8.0% | |
| Taiwan | Kalshi | 10.0% | |
| India | Kalshi | 9.0% | |
| Indonesia | Kalshi | 7.0% | |
| European Union | Kalshi | 8.0% |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $368K
- Liquidity: $136K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources
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