Which countries will vote to leave the EU before 2030?
As of Sat, 17 Oct 2026 09:05:08 UTC, Kalshi traders price France (5.0%), Italy (4.0%), Hungary (4.0%). The market has $25K in volume and closes on Tue, 01 Jan 2030.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| France | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Italy | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Hungary | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Poland | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Spain | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Germany | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $25K
- Liquidity: $25K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for France:
If France votes to leave the EU before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Sources
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