Which leaders will leave office this year?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 08:51:47 UTC, Kalshi traders price Christopher Luxon (48.0%), Pedro Sánchez (38.0%), Benjamin Netanyahu (38.0%). The market has $8.2M in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Luxon | 48.0% | 48.0¢ | 52.0¢ |
| Pedro Sánchez | 38.0% | 38.0¢ | 62.0¢ |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 38.0% | 38.0¢ | 62.0¢ |
| Sébastien Lecornu | 17.0% | 17.0¢ | 83.0¢ |
| Mohammed bin Salman | 14.0% | 14.0¢ | 86.0¢ |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
| Kim Jong Un | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
| Rodrigo Paz Pereira | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| Lee Jae Myung | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| Cyril Ramaphosa | 7.5% | 7.5¢ | 92.5¢ |
| Emmanuel Macron | 7.2% | 7.2¢ | 92.8¢ |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 6.9% | 6.9¢ | 93.1¢ |
| Mette Frederiksen | 6.9% | 6.9¢ | 93.1¢ |
| Friedrich Merz | 6.1% | 6.1¢ | 93.9¢ |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $8.2M
- Liquidity: $8.6M
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Christopher Luxon:
If Christopher Luxon has either officially announced their intention to leave as Prime Minister of New Zealand or has actually left Prime Minister of New Zealand before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. An "official announcement" means a statement by the person themselves, their authorized representative, or the official body governing the office that the person will be departing from the office. Such announcements must be reported by at least one Source Agency to be considered official. The announcement must not specify they are leaving in more than a year from the statement, in which case the market does not resolve to Yes. "Leaving office" means the person no longer holds the office in any capacity, including but not limited to: resignation (effective), termination, removal, impeachment and removal, recall, or the expiration of their term without renewal. Temporary absences such as medical leave, suspension with possibility of return, or delegation of duties while retaining the office do NOT constitute leaving office. Forced departures (termination, impeachment and removal, etc.) satisfy the Payout Criterion even without a prior announcement.
Sources
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