Which of these African leaders will leave office next?
As of Sat, 17 Oct 2026 23:21:29 UTC, Kalshi traders price Cyril Ramaphosa (15.0%), Bola Tinubu (14.0%), John Mahama (7.0%). The market has $24K in volume and closes on Mon, 01 Jan 2035.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cyril Ramaphosa | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
| Bola Tinubu | 14.0% | 14.0¢ | 86.0¢ |
| John Mahama | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Emmerson Mnangagwa | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| William Ruto | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| Abdel Fattah el-Sisi | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Abdelmadjid Tebboune | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Félix Tshisekedi | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Paul Kagame | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Taye Atske Selassie | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $24K
- Liquidity: $24K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Cyril Ramaphosa:
If the President of South Africa is the first leader among the above to leave office, then the market resolves to Yes. An announcement that a leader will leave their position is not sufficient to resolve the Payout Criterion; the individual must actually leave and no longer hold the title. If any leader leaves solely because they have died, then all markets will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death) or another fair price.
Sources
Related markets
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Which leaders will leave office this year?
- Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland?
- Who will officially lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?
- Nobel Peace Prize winner
- Miguel Díaz-Canel departure announced?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.