Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?
As of Wed, 21 Oct 2026 11:27:49 UTC, Polymarket traders price Pete Buttigieg (27.5%), Rahm Emanuel (26.5%), Gavin Newsom (16.9%). The market has $14K in volume and closes on Mon, 01 Jan 2029.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Buttigieg | 27.5% | 27.5¢ | 72.5¢ |
| Rahm Emanuel | 26.5% | 26.5¢ | 73.5¢ |
| Gavin Newsom | 16.9% | 16.9¢ | 83.2¢ |
| Andy Beshear | 15.5% | 15.5¢ | 84.5¢ |
| Kamala Harris | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| Josh Shapiro | 10.6% | 10.6¢ | 89.4¢ |
| Ro Khanna | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 2.5% | 2.5¢ | 97.5¢ |
| Jon Ossoff | 2.1% | 2.1¢ | 97.9¢ |
| Stephen A. Smith | 0.4% | 0.4¢ | 99.6¢ |
| Jon Stewart | 0.3% | 0.3¢ | 99.7¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $14K
- Liquidity: $63K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith. An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market. If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources
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