Which of these people will be impeached first by the end of 2027?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 12:53:43 UTC, Polymarket traders price Pete Hegseth (44.5%), Nobody (26.0%), Donald Trump (13.5%). The market has $2K in volume and closes on Sat, 01 Jan 2028.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth | 44.5% | 44.5¢ | 55.5¢ |
| Nobody | 26.0% | 26.0¢ | 74.0¢ |
| Donald Trump | 13.5% | 13.5¢ | 86.5¢ |
| Howard Lutnick | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| Clarence Thomas | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| Samuel Alito | 4.2% | 4.2¢ | 95.8¢ |
| Todd Blanche | 4.1% | 4.1¢ | 95.9¢ |
| JD Vance | 1.8% | 1.8¢ | 98.2¢ |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 1.3% | 1.3¢ | 98.7¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $2K
- Liquidity: $64K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to which of the listed individuals is the first to be the subject of articles of impeachment passed by the United States House of Representatives between market creation and December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. Articles of impeachment passed against any individual not listed in this market will not be considered. In the event that articles of impeachment are passed against multiple listed individuals simultaneously, this market will resolve in favor of the listed individual, among those with articles of impeachment passed against them, whose last name is first in alphabetical order. In the event that none of the listed individuals is impeached by the United States House of Representatives by December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Nobody". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources
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