Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 14:27:32 UTC, Polymarket traders price The Democrats (63.0%), Yashar (58.5%), Yisrael Beiteinu (53.5%). The market has $26K in volume and closes on Wed, 30 Jun 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Democrats | 63.0% | 63.0¢ | 37.0¢ |
| Yashar | 58.5% | 58.5¢ | 41.5¢ |
| Yisrael Beiteinu | 53.5% | 53.5¢ | 46.5¢ |
| Together | 47.5% | 47.5¢ | 52.5¢ |
| New Economic Party / The Reservists | 40.0% | 40.0¢ | 60.0¢ |
| RZP-Zehut | 37.5% | 37.5¢ | 62.5¢ |
| Likud | 34.0% | 34.0¢ | 66.0¢ |
| United Torah Judaism | 31.0% | 31.0¢ | 69.0¢ |
| Amcha Yisrael | 29.0% | 29.0¢ | 71.0¢ |
| Shas | 28.5% | 28.5¢ | 71.5¢ |
| Ra'am | 22.0% | 22.0¢ | 78.0¢ |
| Otzma Yehudit | 21.0% | 21.0¢ | 79.0¢ |
| Joint List | 4.8% | 4.8¢ | 95.2¢ |
| Blue and White | 2.4% | 2.4¢ | 97.6¢ |
| Noam | 1.9% | 1.9¢ | 98.1¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $26K
- Liquidity: $315K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Parliamentary elections to elect the 26th Knesset are scheduled to take place on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed political party or electoral list is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market may resolve once the composition of the first Israeli government following the 2026 Knesset election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. The government is considered formed when the newly elected Knesset approves the government in a vote of confidence. A party is considered part of the government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Prime Minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Israel and the Knesset.
Sources
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