Which parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand?
As of Thu, 03 Sep 2026 12:09:41 UTC, Polymarket traders price Green Party (56.5%), National Party (52.5%), Labour Party (49.5%). The market has $3K in volume and closes on Sun, 08 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Green Party | 56.5% | 56.5¢ | 43.5¢ |
| National Party | 52.5% | 52.5¢ | 47.5¢ |
| Labour Party | 49.5% | 49.5¢ | 50.5¢ |
| New Zealand First Party | 46.0% | 46.0¢ | 54.0¢ |
| ACT New Zealand | 45.0% | 45.0¢ | 55.0¢ |
| Te Pāti Māori | 31.0% | 31.0¢ | 69.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $3K
- Liquidity: $5K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first New Zealand government formed after the 2026 New Zealand general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances. A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of New Zealand.
Sources
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