Next French Presidential Election
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 08:17:46 UTC, Polymarket traders price Marine Le Pen (46.0%), Édouard Philippe (18.5%), David Lisnard (11.8%). The market has $100.5M in volume and closes on Mon, 19 Apr 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 46.0% | 46.0¢ | 54.0¢ |
| Édouard Philippe | 18.5% | 18.5¢ | 81.5¢ |
| David Lisnard | 11.8% | 11.8¢ | 88.3¢ |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 10.5% | 10.5¢ | 89.5¢ |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 4.5% | 4.5¢ | 95.5¢ |
| François Hollande | 1.9% | 1.9¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Gabriel Attal | 1.1% | 1.1¢ | 98.9¢ |
| Sarah Knafo | 0.9% | 0.9¢ | 99.2¢ |
| Éric Zemmour | 0.8% | 0.8¢ | 99.3¢ |
| Bruno Retailleau | 0.7% | 0.7¢ | 99.4¢ |
| Christine Lagarde | 0.7% | 0.7¢ | 99.4¢ |
| Dominique de Villepin | 0.5% | 0.5¢ | 99.5¢ |
| Jordan Bardella | 0.5% | 0.5¢ | 99.5¢ |
| Natacha Polony | 0.4% | 0.4¢ | 99.6¢ |
| Sébastien Lecornu | 0.3% | 0.3¢ | 99.8¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $100.5M
- Liquidity: $19.3M
- Closes:
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Sources
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