When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 05:19:27 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Jan 1, 2029 (53.0%), Before Jul 1, 2028 (48.0%), Before Jan 1, 2028 (47.0%). The market has $52.0M in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | 53.0% | 53.0¢ | 47.0¢ |
| Before Jul 1, 2028 | 48.0% | 48.0¢ | 52.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 47.0% | 47.0¢ | 53.0¢ |
| Before Nov 1, 2027 | 42.0% | 42.0¢ | 58.0¢ |
| Before Dec 1, 2027 | 41.0% | 41.0¢ | 59.0¢ |
| Before Oct 1, 2027 | 38.0% | 38.0¢ | 62.0¢ |
| Before Sep 1, 2027 | 35.0% | 35.0¢ | 65.0¢ |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 34.0% | 34.0¢ | 66.0¢ |
| Before Aug 1, 2027 | 34.0% | 34.0¢ | 66.0¢ |
| Before Jun 1, 2027 | 25.0% | 25.0¢ | 75.0¢ |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 21.0% | 21.0¢ | 79.0¢ |
| Before May 1, 2027 | 18.0% | 18.0¢ | 82.0¢ |
| Before Mar 1, 2027 | 14.0% | 14.0¢ | 86.0¢ |
| Before Feb 1, 2027 | 11.0% | 11.0¢ | 89.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 8.1% | 8.1¢ | 91.9¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $52.0M
- Liquidity: $52.0M
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Jan 1, 2029:
If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before January 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Sources
Related markets
- Which leaders will leave office this year?
- Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland?
- Who will officially lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?
- Nobel Peace Prize winner
- Miguel Díaz-Canel departure announced?
- Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.