How high will average weekly Hormuz traffic get this year?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:02 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above 30 (17.0%), Above 40 (12.0%), Above 50 (11.0%). The market has $204K in volume and closes on Mon, 05 Apr 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 30 | 17.0% | 17.0¢ | 83.0¢ |
| Above 40 | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| Above 50 | 11.0% | 11.0¢ | 89.0¢ |
| Above 60 | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Above 90 | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Above 70 | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Above 80 | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Above 100 | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Above 110 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Above 120 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $204K
- Liquidity: $204K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 30:
If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 30 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Sources
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