Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran this year?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:00 UTC, Kalshi traders price Yes (4.0%). The market has $1.1M in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
Prices on other venues
| Outcome | Venue | Chance | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | Polymarket | 3.4% |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $1.1M
- Liquidity: $1.1M
- Closes:
Resolution rules
If the United States recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this Contract, the United States recognizes Reza Pahlavi when the government of the United States takes official action acknowledging Reza Pahlavi specifically as the rightful or legitimate leader of Iran. Recognition must be explicit regarding Reza Pahlavi as an individual, not merely recognition of Iran as a state or recognition of whatever government happens to be in power.
Sources
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