US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? — odds by venue
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.2% on Polymarket |
Venues
- Polymarket: Volume $642.4K · Liquidity $27.8K · Price time —
- Kalshi: Volume $1.1M · Liquidity $1.1M · Price time —
Resolution rules
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resoluti…
Kalshi
If the United States recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this Contract, the United States recognizes Reza Pahlavi when the government of the United States takes official action acknowledging Reza Pahlavi specifically as the rightful or legitimate leader of Iran. Recognition must be explicit regarding Reza Pahlavi as an individual, not merely recognition of Iran as a state or recognition of whatever government happens to be in power.