US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:49:09 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes (3.4%). The market has $642K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3.4% | 3.4¢ | 96.7¢ |
Prices on other venues
| Outcome | Venue | Chance | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | Kalshi | 4.0% |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $642K
- Liquidity: $27K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sources
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