Will the US acquire any new territory?
As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 06:43:57 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Jan 21, 2029 (25.0%), Before Jan 2028 (20.0%), Before Jan 2027 (5.0%). The market has $831K in volume and closes on Sun, 21 Jan 2029.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 21, 2029 | 25.0% | 25.0¢ | 75.0¢ |
| Before Jan 2028 | 20.0% | 20.0¢ | 80.0¢ |
| Before Jan 2027 | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $831K
- Liquidity: $831K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Jan 21, 2029:
If the United States gains control of any territory outside its sovereignty as of Issuance before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. An announcement by the United States and the entity that controls the territory that it will happen is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. The territory must come under formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system, where it was not previously. Merely leasing a given part in territory – for example, setting up a military base on leased territory – is not encompassed by the Payout Criterion.
Sources
Related markets
- Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland?
- Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced?
- What countries will Trump visit this year?
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Venezuela leader end of 2026?
- Which leaders will leave office this year?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.