Will the US ban crude oil exports?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 16:00:44 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before 2027 (2.0%), Before August 2026 (1.0%). The market has $99K in volume and closes on Fri, 08 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2027 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Before August 2026 | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $99K
- Liquidity: $99K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before 2027:
If the United States has imposed a ban on exports of crude oil that has gone into effect after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
Sources
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