Will marijuana be rescheduled?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 06:14:34 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Jan 20, 2029 (90.0%), Before Jan 1, 2028 (72.0%), Before Oct 1, 2027 (67.0%). The market has $7.4M in volume and closes on Sat, 20 Jan 2029.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 20, 2029 | 90.0% | 90.0¢ | 10.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 72.0% | 72.0¢ | 28.0¢ |
| Before Oct 1, 2027 | 67.0% | 67.0¢ | 33.0¢ |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 54.0% | 54.0¢ | 46.0¢ |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 41.0% | 41.0¢ | 59.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 8.1% | 8.1¢ | 91.9¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $7.4M
- Liquidity: $7.4M
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Jan 20, 2029:
If marijuana is rescheduled from Schedule I to a lower drug schedule under the Controlled Substances Act before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If the DEA were to reschedule only certain cannabis derivatives or specific cannabinoids (e.g., move THC or a particular cannabis-derived pharmaceutical to a different schedule) without reclassifying marijuana/cannabis as a whole, that would not qualify as rescheduling marijuana for this contract. Ending the schedule altogether would resolve the market to Yes. Clarification (12/12/25): The Payout Criterion requires that marijuana is legally removed from Schedule I. The mere announcement or publication of a Final Rule in the Federal Register does not satisfy the Payout Criterion if the rule has not taken legal effect. The market resolves based on the actual status of the Schedules under the Controlled Substances Act.
Sources
Related markets
- Venezuela leader end of 2026?
- Who will leave their role in the Trump administration this year?
- Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland?
- Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?
- Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
- Will Trump be impeached?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.