Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced?
As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 22:29:09 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Jan 31, 2028 (70.0%), Before Oct 1, 2027 (55.0%), Before Jun 1, 2027 (28.0%). The market has $1.2M in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 31, 2028 | 70.0% | 70.0¢ | 30.0¢ |
| Before Oct 1, 2027 | 55.0% | 55.0¢ | 45.0¢ |
| Before Jun 1, 2027 | 28.0% | 28.0¢ | 72.0¢ |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 16.0% | 16.0¢ | 84.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $1.2M
- Liquidity: $1.2M
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Jan 31, 2028:
If Jerome Powell has either officially announced their intention to leave as Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or has actually left as Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 31, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. An acknowledgment that Jerome Powell will leave office due solely to the scheduled expiration of his legally mandated term limit does not resolve to Yes. The market resolves to Yes upon either an official announcement of departure or actual departure from office. An announcement must be made by the person themselves, their authorized representative, or the governing body of the office and reported by at least one Source Agency. Announcements of leaving more than one year from the statement do not resolve the market to Yes. Leaving office includes resignation, termination, removal, impeachment and removal, recall, or term expiration without renewal. Temporary absences such as medical leave, suspension with possibility of return, or delegation of duties while retaining office do NOT qualify. Forced departures satisfy the criterion even without prior announcement.
Sources
Related markets
- Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland?
- What countries will Trump visit this year?
- Will the US acquire any new territory?
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Venezuela leader end of 2026?
- Which leaders will leave office this year?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.