Who will leave their role in the Trump administration this year?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 06:38:46 UTC, Kalshi traders price Ric Grenell (69.0%), Susie Wiles (41.0%), Amy Gleason (32.0%). The market has $8.1M in volume and closes on Thu, 07 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ric Grenell | 69.0% | 69.0¢ | 31.0¢ |
| Susie Wiles | 41.0% | 41.0¢ | 59.0¢ |
| Amy Gleason | 32.0% | 32.0¢ | 68.0¢ |
| Doug Collins | 31.0% | 31.0¢ | 69.0¢ |
| Pete Hegseth | 28.0% | 28.0¢ | 72.0¢ |
| Steve Witkoff | 23.0% | 23.0¢ | 77.0¢ |
| Bill Pulte | 21.0% | 21.0¢ | 79.0¢ |
| Linda McMahon | 19.0% | 19.0¢ | 81.0¢ |
| Brooke Rollins | 17.0% | 17.0¢ | 83.0¢ |
| Howard Lutnick | 17.0% | 17.0¢ | 83.0¢ |
| Mike Huckabee | 16.0% | 16.0¢ | 84.0¢ |
| Kash Patel | 16.0% | 16.0¢ | 84.0¢ |
| Tom Homan | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
| Peter Navarro | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $8.1M
- Liquidity: $8.1M
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Ric Grenell:
If Ric Grenell leaves as Special Presidential Envoy for Special Missions before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Ric Grenell must have an actual departure date by vacating the role within the time period. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
Sources
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