Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:31:51 UTC, Polymarket traders price December 31 (4.4%), October 31 (0.7%). The market has $87K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 4.4% | 4.4¢ | 95.6¢ |
| October 31 | 0.7% | 0.7¢ | 99.3¢ |
Prices on other venues
| Outcome | Venue | Chance | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | Kalshi | 4.0% |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $87K
- Liquidity: $756K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for December 31:
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sources
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