Will the US create a national AI regulator?
As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 20:59:21 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Jan 1, 2028 (68.0%), Before Jul 1, 2027 (43.0%), Before Jan 1, 2027 (15.0%). The market has $3K in volume and closes on Sat, 08 Jan 2028.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 68.0% | 68.0¢ | 32.0¢ |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 43.0% | 43.0¢ | 57.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $3K
- Liquidity: $3K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Jan 1, 2028:
If the United States agrees to or announces the establishment of a national AI regulator before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. For this market, a qualifying establishment must be adopted through a law, executive order, regulation, or other binding official act, or unconditionally announced by the President, an authorized Cabinet official, or another authorized U.S. government body. A new body or formally designated existing body qualifies only if a binding official action grants it primary nationwide, cross-sector AI rulemaking, licensing, supervisory, or enforcement authority comparable in substance to a national regulator, or if an unconditional official announcement commits to granting it such authority, including when that authority will take effect later. The body's name or form does not control: a council, office, standards body, or SRO qualifies if one identifiable body receives those powers. A body that only advises, coordinates, studies, tests, sets voluntary standards, conducts one-off reviews, or has only sector-specific authority does not qualify. Distributed sector-by-sector authority does not qualify.
Sources
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