Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:11:56 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Jan 1, 2030 (42.0%), Before Jan 1, 2029 (29.0%), Before Jan 1, 2028 (21.0%). The market has $505K in volume and closes on Tue, 01 Jan 2030.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2030 | 42.0% | 42.0¢ | 58.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | 29.0% | 29.0¢ | 71.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 21.0% | 21.0¢ | 79.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $505K
- Liquidity: $505K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Jan 1, 2030:
If the U.S. State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Advisories dated for future events must be effective before Jan 1, 2030 to qualify. The category level must be the one that applies to the whole country, rather than a particular region, unless the country rulebook variable in this case refers to a region. A Travel Advisory is considered "issued" when it appears on the official State Department travel advisories website with an official publication date. A Level 4 travel advisory means "Do not travel" and is the highest advisory level due to life-threatening risks.
Sources
Related markets
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Which leaders will leave office this year?
- Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland?
- Who will officially lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?
- Nobel Peace Prize winner
- Miguel Díaz-Canel departure announced?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.