Which USMCA outcomes will occur this year?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:00 UTC, Kalshi traders price U.S.–Mexico interim agreement (37.0%), U.S.–Canada interim agreement (28.0%), Trilateral revised deal (26.0%). The market has $13K in volume and closes on Fri, 08 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S.–Mexico interim agreement | 37.0% | 37.0¢ | 63.0¢ |
| U.S.–Canada interim agreement | 28.0% | 28.0¢ | 72.0¢ |
| Trilateral revised deal | 26.0% | 26.0¢ | 74.0¢ |
| U.S. withdrawal notice | 17.0% | 17.0¢ | 83.0¢ |
| Formal USMCA amendment | 16.0% | 16.0¢ | 84.0¢ |
| Formal 16-year extension | 16.0% | 16.0¢ | 84.0¢ |
| Mexican withdrawal notice | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| Canadian withdrawal notice | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $13K
- Liquidity: $13K
- Closes:
Sources
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