Which member of Congress will have the biggest returns in 2025?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:02 UTC, Kalshi traders price Roger Williams (44.0%), Debbie Wasserman-Schultz (38.0%), Morgan McGarvey (25.0%). The market has $29K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Williams | 44.0% | 44.0¢ | 56.0¢ |
| Debbie Wasserman-Schultz | 38.0% | 38.0¢ | 62.0¢ |
| Morgan McGarvey | 25.0% | 25.0¢ | 75.0¢ |
| Ron Wyden | 20.0% | 20.0¢ | 80.0¢ |
| Pete Sessions | 16.0% | 16.0¢ | 84.0¢ |
| Susan Collins | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Nancy Pelosi | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| David Kustoff | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Larry Bucshon | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| David Rouzer | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $29K
- Liquidity: $29K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Roger Williams:
If Roger Williams is the person in Congress that has the highest return on their assets in 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying for this Contract is the identity of the member of Congress with the greatest percent difference in the value of their assets in their end of year report for 2025 compared to the previous year (2025 value minus the previous year's value, all divided by the previous year's value, times one hundred). This will be calculated using Congress' annual personal financial disclosures (OGE Form 278e). Because each asset is given as a range of values in the disclosures, we use the midpoint of each range as an estimated value for that asset. The midpoint is calculated by taking the lower bound of the reported range plus the upper bound, and dividing by two. For example, if an asset is reported in the $15,001 – $50,000 range, the midpoint used would be $32,500.5 (the average of 15,001 and 50,000). In cases where the disclosure uses an open-ended top category (for instance, some forms list "Over $50,000,000" as the highest category for an asset value, with no upper limit), we will assign a value of $50,000,001 for that asset.
Sources
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