Will the ACA premium tax credits be extended?
As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 02:02:28 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before 2028 (11.0%), Before 2027 (4.0%). The market has $2.3M in volume and closes on Tue, 01 Feb 2028.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2028 | 11.0% | 11.0¢ | 89.0¢ |
| Before 2027 | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $2.3M
- Liquidity: $2.3M
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before 2028:
If legislation extending or reinstating (if expired) enhanced ACA premium tax credits becomes law before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Clarification (11/14/25): Any extension that continues the enhanced premium tax credits past this year qualifies for a Yes resolution, regardless of modifications to the extension's structure. This would include extensions that reduce the subsidy amounts or modify eligibility criteria. An extension of the credits for any length of time beyond the current expiration date is encompassed within the Payout Criterion.
Sources
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