Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027? — odds by venue
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | 13% | 11% | 11% on Kalshi |
| Taiwan | 11.9% | 13% | 11.9% on Polymarket |
| India | 10% | 11% | 10% on Polymarket |
| Indonesia | 11% | 9% | 9% on Kalshi |
| European Union | 8% | 11% | 8% on Polymarket |
Venues
- Polymarket: Volume $330.5K · Liquidity $116.5K · Price time —
- Kalshi: Volume $14K · Liquidity $14K · Price time —
Resolution rules
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Kalshi
If a free trade deal with European Union has become law, either through Senate ratification and Presidential approval or through Congressional-Executive Agreement and the signature of the President (or at least, signing the implementing legislation) after Issuance before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.