Which countries will Trump make formal trade deals with this year?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:00 UTC, Kalshi traders price Argentina (12.0%), Taiwan (10.0%), China (10.0%). The market has $14K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| Taiwan | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
| China | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
| India | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| European Union | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| United Kingdom | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| Indonesia | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Kenya | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Switzerland | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
Prices on other venues
| Outcome | Venue | Chance | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| Taiwan | Polymarket | 9.7% | |
| India | Polymarket | 8.5% | |
| European Union | Polymarket | 5.7% | |
| United Kingdom | Polymarket | 10.5% | |
| Indonesia | Polymarket | 8.0% |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $14K
- Liquidity: $14K
- Closes:
Sources
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