Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 12:14:56 UTC, Polymarket traders price Jared Kushner (39.0%), Steve Witkoff (35.5%), Abbas Araghchi (35.0%). The market has $213K in volume and closes on Thu, 31 Dec 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Kushner | 39.0% | 39.0¢ | 61.0¢ |
| Steve Witkoff | 35.5% | 35.5¢ | 64.5¢ |
| Abbas Araghchi | 35.0% | 35.0¢ | 65.0¢ |
| Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani | 29.0% | 29.0¢ | 71.0¢ |
| Nick Stewart | 28.5% | 28.5¢ | 71.5¢ |
| Majid Takht-Ravanchi | 27.0% | 27.0¢ | 73.0¢ |
| Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf | 23.0% | 23.0¢ | 77.0¢ |
| Kazem Gharibabadi | 23.0% | 23.0¢ | 77.0¢ |
| Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi | 17.5% | 17.5¢ | 82.5¢ |
| Rafael Grossi | 16.5% | 16.5¢ | 83.5¢ |
| J.D. Vance | 16.5% | 16.5¢ | 83.5¢ |
| Ishaq Dar | 16.0% | 16.0¢ | 84.0¢ |
| Masoud Pezeshkian | 12.5% | 12.5¢ | 87.5¢ |
| Marco Rubio | 8.5% | 8.5¢ | 91.5¢ |
| Donald Trump | 7.3% | 7.3¢ | 92.7¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $213K
- Liquidity: $399K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) a…
Sources
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