When will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch?
As of Tue, 27 Oct 2026 17:18:15 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Jan 1, 2028 (55.0%), Before Jul 1, 2027 (28.0%), Before Jan 1, 2027 (5.0%). The market has $1K in volume and closes on Fri, 07 Jan 2028.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 55.0% | 55.0¢ | 45.0¢ |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 28.0% | 28.0¢ | 72.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $1K
- Liquidity: $1K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Jan 1, 2028:
If federal legislation authorizing government-initiated AI shutdowns has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. A qualifying federal law must expressly authorize the U.S. government to initiate the shutdown, suspension, or technical disabling of an operating AI model or system to address safety or security risks or loss of control. The government may act directly or compel a developer, operator, or service provider to carry out the shutdown, including through a court order. A company-controlled kill switch alone does not qualify. Neither does authority limited to blocking future development or release, or a general power to regulate AI without authority to stop an operating system. The government need not own or physically operate the shutdown mechanism, and the authority need not be used before the deadline. A later effective date does not delay qualification. An example of this is the AI Kill Switch Act (H.R. 9917).
Sources
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