When will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?
As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 19:02:16 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Jan 1, 2028 (45.0%), Before Jul 1, 2027 (28.0%), Before Jan 1, 2027 (5.0%). The market has $15K in volume and closes on Fri, 07 Jan 2028.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 45.0% | 45.0¢ | 55.0¢ |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 28.0% | 28.0¢ | 72.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $15K
- Liquidity: $15K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Jan 1, 2028:
If legislation requiring AI kill switches has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. A qualifying federal law must require a technical capability to halt or disable an AI model or system when needed to address safety or security risks or loss of control. This may be implemented through shutdown, suspension, or cutting off the resources or access the system needs to operate. Control may remain with the company; government authority to activate it is not required. A general power to ban AI development or deployment does not qualify without a required technical shutdown capability. The capability need not be activated before the deadline. A later effective date does not delay qualification. An example of this is the AI Kill Switch Act (H.R. 9917).
Sources
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