Which bills will become law in 2026?
As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 11:48:51 UTC, Polymarket traders price Export-control chip security (31.0%), FISA Section 702 reauthorization (17.5%), Data center utility cost protection (17.5%). The market has $25K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Export-control chip security | 31.0% | 31.0¢ | 69.0¢ |
| FISA Section 702 reauthorization | 17.5% | 17.5¢ | 82.5¢ |
| Data center utility cost protection | 17.5% | 17.5¢ | 82.5¢ |
| AI-chip export licensing | 17.0% | 17.0¢ | 83.0¢ |
| Credit-card routing competition | 15.4% | 15.4¢ | 84.6¢ |
| Film/TV production expensing | 12.3% | 12.3¢ | 87.8¢ |
| NO FAKES Act | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
| Critical-minerals stockpile | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| $2.50 Coin | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Smithsonian Women’s History Museum | 6.9% | 6.9¢ | 93.1¢ |
| DEFIANCE Act | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| SELF DRIVE Act | 3.8% | 3.8¢ | 96.2¢ |
| SHOWER Act | 3.2% | 3.2¢ | 96.8¢ |
| Trump Airport | 1.9% | 1.9¢ | 98.1¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $25K
- Liquidity: $150K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Export-control chip security:
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that would require location-verification security mechanisms on certain advanced chips before export is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying legislation includes the H.R. 3447 (119th) — “Chip Security Act.” Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources
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