Which bills will become law this year?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:11:56 UTC, Kalshi traders price Protect College Sports Act (36.0%), Export-control chip security (30.0%), Defense-contractor stock-buyback restrictions (24.0%). The market has $848K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Protect College Sports Act | 36.0% | 36.0¢ | 64.0¢ |
| Export-control chip security | 30.0% | 30.0¢ | 70.0¢ |
| Defense-contractor stock-buyback restrictions | 24.0% | 24.0¢ | 76.0¢ |
| AI-chip export licensing | 18.0% | 18.0¢ | 82.0¢ |
| Data center utility cost protection | 16.0% | 16.0¢ | 84.0¢ |
| Hot Rotisserie Chicken Act | 16.0% | 16.0¢ | 84.0¢ |
| Insulin cost cap | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
| FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years) | 14.0% | 14.0¢ | 86.0¢ |
| Railway safety bill | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
| Credit-card routing competition | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| ADS-B revenue-use restriction | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| Film/TV production expensing | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| FAKES | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| Fort Bragg → Fort Liberty | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| Surface transportation reauthorization | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $848K
- Liquidity: $848K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Protect College Sports Act:
If legislation principally aimed at establishing a federal framework for college sports, including through NIL preemption, antitrust treatment of association rules, athlete-compensation standards, student-athlete protections, or employment-status rules has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Clarification: 'FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years)' (KXBILLS-FISA) resolves to Yes only if FISA Section 702 is reauthorized for exactly two years, as in the provided example (Public Law 118-49). A reauthorization for any other duration would not qualify. Clarification: To be clear, legislation that appropriates funds for security adjustments and upgrades relating to the East Wing Modernization Project, a project that includes the construction of a presidential ballroom, constitutes legislation that "authorizes funding for construction of a presidential ballroom," even if the funds are restricted to security elements of that construction.
Sources
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