Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?
As of Thu, 22 Oct 2026 00:18:44 UTC, Polymarket traders price Juan Reyes Mejía González (20.5%), Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar (16.5%), Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar (15.9%). The market has $75K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Reyes Mejía González | 20.5% | 20.5¢ | 79.5¢ |
| Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar | 16.5% | 16.5¢ | 83.5¢ |
| Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar | 15.9% | 15.9¢ | 84.1¢ |
| Juan Pablo Ledezma | 11.5% | 11.5¢ | 88.5¢ |
| Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez | 10.5% | 10.5¢ | 89.5¢ |
| Ricardo Ruiz Velasco | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan | 7.5% | 7.5¢ | 92.5¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $75K
- Liquidity: $44K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources
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