What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 06:10:30 UTC, Polymarket traders price ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) (14.5%), Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) (14.5%), Dilution of Iran's Uranium (12.5%). The market has $547K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) | 14.5% | 14.5¢ | 85.5¢ |
| Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) | 14.5% | 14.5¢ | 85.5¢ |
| Dilution of Iran's Uranium | 12.5% | 12.5¢ | 87.5¢ |
| Enriched Uranium Surrender | 9.5% | 9.5¢ | 90.5¢ |
| 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium | 9.5% | 9.5¢ | 90.5¢ |
| Iran Reconstruction Funding | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $547K
- Liquidity: $224K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year):
This market resolves to “Yes” if a written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran that establishes a percentage cap of 5% or less on the purity level to which Iran may enrich uranium, committed to for at least one year, has been mutually signed or otherwise formally adopted by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” The instrument must specifically include a 5% or lower percentage cap that operates as a general ceiling on the level to which Iran may enrich uranium for any purpose. Vague, or non-specific language regarding the level of Iranian uranium enrichment which does not establish a specific percentage cap on all Iranian enrichment (e.g., “lower levels”, “civilian grade”, “maintain the status quo”) will not qualify. Caps which directly mandate a precise 5% or lower percentage cap on Iranian enrichment through reference to a publicly-recognized benchmark percentage (e.g., JCPOA-levels), however, will qualify, even if they do not specifically reference the relevant numeric percentage itself. An Iranian commitment to end all enrichment of uranium qualifies as a cap, as it establishes a 0% cap on Iranian uranium enrichment. A qualifying enrichment cap must be committed for a period of at least one year. A permanent enrichment cap will qualify. An enrichment cap with no specified end date will qualify unless explicitly framed as short-term, provisional, or temporary (e.g., a commitment not to enrich uranium while the exact…
Sources
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