Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?
As of Wed, 21 Oct 2026 11:18:04 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes (1.7%). The market has $7K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.7% | 1.7¢ | 98.3¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $7K
- Liquidity: $65K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources
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