Will Trump recognize Taiwan?
As of Sat, 10 Oct 2026 22:54:09 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Jan 20, 2029 (12.0%), Before 2027 (2.0%). The market has $39K in volume and closes on Sat, 20 Jan 2029.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 20, 2029 | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| Before 2027 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $39K
- Liquidity: $39K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Jan 20, 2029:
If the United States explicitly and formally recognizes the Republic of China as a sovereign state independent from any previously recognized country after Issuance and before Jan 20, 2029, the market resolves to Yes. This could include: opening a U.S. embassy with the Republic of China, accepting an ambassador from the Republic of China, including the entity as an independent country in U.S. Department of State country lists, or signing a formal treaty, bilateral agreement, or communique that explicitly identifies the Republic of China as an independent and sovereign state. Merely acknowledging a governing authority exists, without recognizing its authority, is insufficient to resolve the market to Yes. Establishing a consulate or liaison office without the formal status and language of recognition does not qualify. Trade offices, cultural centers, or other non-embassy missions are insufficient. Participation alongside the entity in international conferences, humanitarian aid missions, or multilateral forums does not in itself constitute recognition as a sovereign state. Nor does U.S. abstention or vote in an international organization automatically equate to bilateral recognition.
Sources
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