Which companies will the US take a stake in?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:49:10 UTC, Polymarket traders price Unusual Machines (30.0%), Anduril (23.5%), Eli Lilly (12.8%). The market has $65K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unusual Machines | 30.0% | 30.0¢ | 70.0¢ |
| Anduril | 23.5% | 23.5¢ | 76.5¢ |
| Eli Lilly | 12.8% | 12.8¢ | 87.3¢ |
| OpenAI | 12.5% | 12.5¢ | 87.5¢ |
| Nvidia | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| TSMC | 11.5% | 11.5¢ | 88.5¢ |
| Lockheed Martin | 10.5% | 10.5¢ | 89.5¢ |
| IonQ | 9.5% | 9.5¢ | 90.5¢ |
| Freeport-McMoRan | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| SpaceX | 7.5% | 7.5¢ | 92.5¢ |
| Boeing | 7.5% | 7.5¢ | 92.5¢ |
| Micron | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Anthropic | 5.9% | 5.9¢ | 94.0¢ |
| Pfizer | 4.7% | 4.7¢ | 95.3¢ |
| Samsung Electronics | 4.7% | 4.7¢ | 95.3¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $65K
- Liquidity: $13K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Unusual Machines:
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. federal government takes a stake in the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Takes a stake refers to the U.S. federal government acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, convertible rights treated as equity, or equivalent ownership interests in the listed company or of a legal vehicle that primarily owns the listed company. Stakes acquired through independent entities entirely controlled or owned by the U.S. federal government (e.g., a sovereign wealth fund, state-owned enterprise, etc.) will count. Non-equity financial instruments or stakes acquired by private persons or entities not owned or controlled by the US federal government will not count; acquisitions by states, pensions, index or mutual funds, or consortia will not qualify. An official US federal government announcement of a completed qualifying acquisition, or of a binding agreement to complete a qualifying acquisition, within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”. Speculation, suggestions, plans, or other announcements that do not announce a completed acquisition or a binding acquisition agreement, however, will not count. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources
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