Who will de facto lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:00 UTC, Kalshi traders price Delcy Rodríguez (93.0%), Jorge Rodríguez (4.0%), Vladimir Padrino López (3.0%). The market has $37K in volume and closes on Fri, 08 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delcy Rodríguez | 93.0% | 93.0¢ | 7.0¢ |
| Jorge Rodríguez | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Vladimir Padrino López | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Nicolás Maduro | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Edmundo González Urrutia | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Diosdado Cabello | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| María Corina Machado | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Gustavo González López | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $37K
- Liquidity: $37K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Delcy Rodríguez:
If Delcy Rodríguez de facto holds the position of head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. For the purposes of this Contract, "Delcy Rodríguez de facto holds head of state of Venezuela" means that, at the end of 2026, Delcy Rodríguez is the individual who primarily exercises the governing authority and core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela, regardless of Delcy Rodríguez's formal title, constitutional designation, formal appointment, domestic legal status, foreign recognition, or international recognition. The Source Agency's determination of whether Delcy Rodríguez de facto holds head of state of Venezuela shall be based on objective indicators of governing authority over the functions attached to head of state of Venezuela, which may include, without limitation: Control over the executive ministries, administrative apparatus, bureaucracy, and state institutions associated with head of state of Venezuela Issuance of binding national directives, decrees, orders, or instructions that are observably obeyed and enforced within the relevant jurisdiction Control over the official seat of power, capital, headquarters, principal residence, or principal infrastructure associated with head of state of Venezuela Treatment by the domestic state institutions associated with head of state of Venezuela as the operative holder of head of state of Venezuela Treatment by foreign governments, multilateral institutions, and cred…
Sources
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