Will Trump try to fire Kevin Warsh?
As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 11:20:07 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Jan 1, 2028 (22.0%), Before Jul 1, 2027 (12.0%), Before Jan 1, 2027 (4.0%). The market has $33K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 22.0% | 22.0¢ | 78.0¢ |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $33K
- Liquidity: $33K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Jan 1, 2028:
If the President of the United States has tried to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. A "try to fire" includes any of the following: The President signs an executive order, memorandum, or other official document stating termination; Directs any Cabinet member or senior official to terminate the person; Publicly states (in a speech, interview, press conference, or verified social media) that he has fired or decided to fire the person; The White House officially announces termination; Sends written communication to the person informing them of termination; Initiates formal legal proceedings for removal The following do NOT qualify: Statements that the person "should" resign or be fired; Expressions of dissatisfaction; Asking or pressuring for voluntary resignation; Stating the President is "looking into" whether he can fire the person; Statements by other officials unless directed by the President; Unsent letters ordering termination This market resolves on the President's attempt to fire, not on whether such attempt is legally valid, successful, or results in the person leaving office.
Sources
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