Will the Supreme Court overturn gay marriage?

As of Wed, 14 Oct 2026 12:24:10 UTC, Kalshi traders price Yes (8.0%). The market has $106K in volume and closes on Mon, 01 Jan 2029.

Updated:

Current odds

OutcomeChanceYes priceNo price
Yes8.0%8.0¢92.0¢

Market details

Resolution rules

If the Supreme Court of the United States has overturned Obergefell v. Hodges after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Obergefell v. Hodges will be considered “overturned” if the Supreme Court of the United States has ruled that the Constitution of the United States does not guarantee the right to marriage to same-sex couples.

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