Who will be charged with a federal crime this year?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 13:03:17 UTC, Kalshi traders price Ilhan Omar (38.0%), Cassidy Hutchinson (30.0%), John Brennan (22.0%). The market has $2.1M in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ilhan Omar | 38.0% | 38.0¢ | 62.0¢ |
| Cassidy Hutchinson | 30.0% | 30.0¢ | 70.0¢ |
| John Brennan | 22.0% | 22.0¢ | 78.0¢ |
| Anthony Fauci | 16.0% | 16.0¢ | 84.0¢ |
| Lisa Cook | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
| Jack Smith | 14.0% | 14.0¢ | 86.0¢ |
| Fani Willis | 14.0% | 14.0¢ | 86.0¢ |
| Dan J. Sullivan | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
| Gustavo Petro | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| Letitia James | 11.0% | 11.0¢ | 89.0¢ |
| Peter Strzok | 11.0% | 11.0¢ | 89.0¢ |
| Gavin Newsom | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
| Andrew Weissmann | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
| Adam Schiff | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| Alvin Bragg | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $2.1M
- Liquidity: $2.1M
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Ilhan Omar:
If Ilhan Omar has been formally charged with a federal crime after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Charges filed in military courts are included. The reinstatement of charges filed prior to Issuance does not count; only the filing of a new charging document after Issuance triggers the Payout Criterion. Formal charges require the filing of a criminal complaint, information, or indictment with an appropriate court. Arrests without charges, being named as a target of investigation, civil lawsuits, and administrative actions do not constitute charges. Traffic violations that don't require court appearances and sealed charges that remain sealed through the deadline also don't count. If charges are filed and then dismissed before the deadline, the market still resolves to Yes. Pre-trial diversion agreements involving formal charges count as charges. For groups of individuals, charges against any member of the specified group trigger the criterion.
Sources
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