When will Justice Alito retire from the Supreme Court?
As of Sat, 17 Oct 2026 17:18:56 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Jul 1, 2027 (38.0%), Before Jan 1, 2027 (7.0%). The market has $1.1M in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 38.0% | 38.0¢ | 62.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $1.1M
- Liquidity: $1.1M
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Jul 1, 2027:
If Samuel Alito retires as Supreme Court Justice before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The resolution is based on the effective date of the resignation. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role.
Sources
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