Will a court block paid early access to Trump's Truth Social posts?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:00 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Apr 1, 2027 (54.0%), Before Jan 1, 2027 (43.0%), Before Dec 1, 2026 (29.0%). The market has $19K in volume and closes on Sat, 01 May 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 54.0% | 54.0¢ | 46.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 43.0% | 43.0¢ | 57.0¢ |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 29.0% | 29.0¢ | 71.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $19K
- Liquidity: $19K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Apr 1, 2027:
If any federal or state court issues a preliminary or permanent injunction prohibiting Trump Media & Technology Group from providing paying customers faster access to Donald Trump's Truth Social posts than is available to the general public in a case concerning paid early access to Donald Trump's Truth Social posts before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The ruling must: Be issued by any federal or state court in a case concerning paid early access to Donald Trump's Truth Social posts Address the matter described by the specified judgment Be issued through a written order, opinion, judgment, or decision The following do NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion: Oral rulings from the bench unless reduced to a written order Tentative rulings that are not made final Draft opinions that leak but are not officially issued Settlements or voluntary dismissals Administrative or scheduling orders Orders to show cause Minute orders that do not address the substantive issue in the specified judgment For clarity: If the case is dismissed for lack of jurisdiction, that counts as a ruling only if the judgment refers to jurisdiction Sua sponte rulings count if they match the specified judgment Per curiam opinions and summary orders count as rulings If multiple judges issue separate opinions, the majority/plurality opinion controls
Sources
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