Who will be arrested this year?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:50 UTC, Kalshi traders price Ilhan Omar (60.0%), John Brennan (22.0%), Mahmoud Khalil (15.0%). The market has $2.6M in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ilhan Omar | 60.0% | 60.0¢ | 40.0¢ |
| John Brennan | 22.0% | 22.0¢ | 78.0¢ |
| Mahmoud Khalil | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
| James Clapper | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| Anthony Fauci | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| Letitia James | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| Lee Jae Myung | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Candace Owens | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| Lee Jun-seok | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| Susan Rice | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| Tom Homan | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Loretta Lynch | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Gavin Newsom | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $2.6M
- Liquidity: $2.6M
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Ilhan Omar:
If Ilhan Omar is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Clarification (9/25/25): The contract states that if an individual "surrenders at a police station or courthouse with their attorney" the payout criterion is satisfied. To be clear, voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement pursuant to an indictment without an arrest warrant is sufficient to resolve a market to Yes.
Sources
Related markets
- Who will be charged with a federal crime this year?
- When will Justice Alito retire from the Supreme Court?
- Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement?
- Who will be the next Supreme Court justice?
- Next French Presidential Election
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.