How many federal judges will be confirmed next year?
As of Fri, 06 Nov 2026 09:18:22 UTC, Kalshi traders price At least 1 (86.0%), At least 5 (73.0%), At least 10 (63.0%). The market has $2K in volume and closes on Sat, 01 Jan 2028.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 1 | 86.0% | 86.0¢ | 14.0¢ |
| At least 5 | 73.0% | 73.0¢ | 27.0¢ |
| At least 10 | 63.0% | 63.0¢ | 37.0¢ |
| At least 15 | 32.0% | 32.0¢ | 68.0¢ |
| At least 20 | 18.0% | 18.0¢ | 82.0¢ |
| At least 30 | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $2K
- Liquidity: $2K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for At least 1:
If above 0 federal judges are confirmed after Jan 1, 2027 and before Jan 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. The positions that are eligible for inclusion are: Supreme Court justices Court of Federal Claims judges U.S. Court of Appeals judges U.S. District Court (including territorial courts) judges Judges for the following courts are NOT included: U.S. Court of International Trade U.S. Tax Court U.S. Court of Appeals for Veterans Claims U.S. Court of Appeals for the Armed Forces U.S. Court of Military Commission Review District of Columbia local courts (D.C. Court of Appeals and Superior Court of the District of Columbia)
Sources
Related markets
- Will the SAVE Act become law?
- Will the Clarity Act become law?
- Will the SAVE America Act become law?
- Will the cap on gambling loss deduction be changed?
- Who will be arrested this year?
- Who will be charged with a federal crime this year?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.